Scottish League One, game week 6 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Cove Rangers and Alloa Athletic finished near neighbours last season -- 7th and 4th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Cove Rangers takes 1.14 points a game, Alloa Athletic 1.29 -- nothing between them. -0.05 points a game is the venue form gap, in Alloa Athletic's favour: Cove Rangers takes 1.25 a game at home over the last two seasons, Alloa Athletic 1.30 away. Cove Rangers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Alloa Athletic scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Cove Rangers's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Alloa Athletic is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 41% of their games, both teams scoring in 38%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 35%. On the record this leans a tight match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Alloa Athletic lands the first blow more often (23 of 41 to 13 of 40); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Alloa Athletic's -- two goals clear in 12 of 41, against 7 of 40; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Alloa Athletic's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 41; Cove Rangers finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 44 after the 75th, and Alloa Athletic concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Cove Rangers 0.91 goals expected, Alloa Athletic 1.00, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Cove Rangers 3.15 (32%), the draw 3.16 (32%), Alloa Athletic 2.73 (37%). The market's averages: 2.93, 2.15 and 2.90. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (2.15) than our 3.16 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 3.33 (30%), under 2.5 1.43 (70%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.88, under 2.5 1.75. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.64 (38%), no 1.61 (62%). The market's averages: yes 1.64, no 2.15. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Cove Rangers's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (30%). In Alloa Athletic's own 20 away matches read, 8 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 35% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.