East Fife: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Ross County: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Championship.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: East Fife scores most in the 46-60 band (8 of 33); East Fife concedes most in the 31-45+ band (12 of 61); Ross County scores most in the 1-15 band (8 of 45); Ross County concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 59). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
East Fife -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 0.9 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 41 league matches; at home, 1.1 for and 1.4 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 33 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 7. (1 of its 41 matches lack usable goal times and are left out.)
When it concedes
Of 61 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 10. (1 of its 41 matches lack usable goal times and are left out.)
The first goal
Scored first in 13 of its 40 read -- then won 7, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 2 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 2 of its 40 read, winning 2 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Ross County -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 40 league matches; away, 0.8 for and 1.5 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 45 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 8. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 8 of 45 (18%).
When it concedes
Of 59 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 59 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 40 read -- then won 12, drew 3, lost 2; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 0 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 3 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 40 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 03:28 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.