Scottish League One, game week 6 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
East Kilbride is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.75 points a game is the venue form gap, in East Kilbride's favour: East Kilbride takes 2.10 a game at home over the last two seasons, Hamilton Academical 1.35 away. East Kilbride scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Hamilton Academical scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 62% of their games, both teams scoring in 48%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 72%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (24 of 41 and 24 of 41); East Kilbride is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (11 of its 54 conceded before the 16th); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often East Kilbride's -- two goals clear in 22 of 41, against 15 of 41; a one-goal lead has not been safe in East Kilbride's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 41; Hamilton Academical finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 64 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: East Kilbride 2.14 goals expected, Hamilton Academical 1.54, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: East Kilbride's figures include last season in the Scottish League Two, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: East Kilbride 1.94 (52%), the draw 4.81 (21%), Hamilton Academical 3.62 (28%). The market's averages: 2.70, 3.65 and 3.25. The widest gap is on East Kilbride: the market offers 2.70 against our 1.94. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.41 (71%), under 2.5 3.46 (29%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.65, under 2.5 2.10. The market offers more than our number on over 2.5 -- if our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: yes 1.44 (69%), no 3.26 (31%). The market's averages: yes 1.55, no 2.23. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In East Kilbride's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 17 (85%). In Hamilton Academical's own 20 away matches read, 12 (60%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 72% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 03:28 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.