Scottish League One, game week 6 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Airdrieonians is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.60 points a game is the venue form gap, in Queen of the South's favour: Queen of the South takes 1.60 a game at home over the last two seasons, Airdrieonians 1.00 away. Queen of the South scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Airdrieonians scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Queen of the South's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Airdrieonians is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Queen of the South lands the first blow more often (18 of 40 to 13 of 41); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Queen of the South's -- two goals clear in 11 of 40, against 6 of 41; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Airdrieonians's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 41; Queen of the South finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 60 after the 75th, and Airdrieonians concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Queen of the South 1.55 goals expected, Airdrieonians 1.00, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Airdrieonians's figures include last season in the Scottish Championship, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Queen of the South 2.00 (50%), the draw 3.93 (25%), Airdrieonians 4.09 (24%). The market's averages: 2.40, 3.50 and 2.34. The widest gap is on Airdrieonians: the market is shorter (2.34) than our 4.09 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.12 (47%), under 2.5 1.89 (53%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.78, under 2.5 1.89. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.00 (50%), no 2.00 (50%). The market's averages: yes 1.62, no 2.15. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queen of the South's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (50%). In Airdrieonians's own 20 away matches read, 10 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.