Airdrieonians scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Hamilton Academical scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 46-60. The shapes mesh: Airdrieonians's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Hamilton Academical is softest.
Airdrieonians: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Championship. Hamilton Academical: 45 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Airdrieonians scores most in the 46-60 band (11 of 44); Airdrieonians concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 62); Hamilton Academical scores most in the 16-30 band (14 of 74); Hamilton Academical concedes most in the 46-60 band (12 of 45). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Airdrieonians -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 0.9 for and 1.2 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 44 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 8.
When it concedes
Of 62 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 62 (26%).
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 46 read -- then won 9, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 46 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Hamilton Academical -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 45 league matches; away, 1.7 for and 1.2 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 74 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 13.
When it concedes
Of 45 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 6.
The first goal
Scored first in 27 of its 45 read -- then won 23, drew 2, lost 2; conceded first in 14 -- pulled back 1 win and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 5 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 45 read, winning 16 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Built 07:06 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.