East Fife: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Alloa Athletic: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: East Fife scores most in the 46-60 band (10 of 38); East Fife concedes most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 70); Alloa Athletic scores most in the 46-60 band (12 of 59); Alloa Athletic concedes most in the 76-90+ band (12 of 50). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
East Fife -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 0.9 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 1.1 for and 1.5 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 38 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 9. (1 of its 46 matches lack usable goal times and are left out.)
When it concedes
Of 70 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 11. (1 of its 46 matches lack usable goal times and are left out.)
The first goal
Scored first in 13 of its 45 read -- then won 7, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 28 -- pulled back 2 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 2 of its 45 read, winning 2 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Alloa Athletic -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.2 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 59 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 59 (20%).
When it concedes
Of 50 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 50 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 46 read -- then won 16, drew 4, lost 3; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 2 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 46 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Built 19:06 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.