East Kilbride scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Montrose scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. The shapes mesh: Montrose's strongest scoring spell is exactly where East Kilbride is softest.
East Kilbride: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League Two. Montrose: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: East Kilbride scores most in the 31-45+ band (24 of 96); East Kilbride concedes most in the 31-45+ band (12 of 59); Montrose scores most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 60); Montrose concedes most in the 61-75 band (19 of 85). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
East Kilbride -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 2.1 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 2.3 for and 1.2 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 96 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 16; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 24; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 14.
When it concedes
Of 59 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 11.
The first goal
Scored first in 28 of its 46 read -- then won 21, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 5 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 18 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 25 of its 46 read, winning 23 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Montrose -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.8 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.7 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 60 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 8.
When it concedes
Of 85 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 19; 76-90+: 18.
The first goal
Scored first in 20 of its 46 read -- then won 13, drew 7, lost 0; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 2 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 46 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.