Scottish League One, game week 11 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Ross County is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Queen of the South takes 1.00 points a game, Ross County 0.69 -- nothing between them. +0.57 points a game is the venue form gap, in Queen of the South's favour: Queen of the South takes 1.70 a game at home over the last two seasons, Ross County 1.13 away. Queen of the South scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Ross County scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Queen of the South's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Ross County is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 49%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 43%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (22 of 46 and 22 of 45); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Queen of the South's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Ross County's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 45; Queen of the South finds its goals latest of all -- 20 of its 69 after the 75th, and Ross County concedes most in that same spell; Ross County finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 66 after the 75th; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Queen of the South 1.59 goals expected, Ross County 1.11, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Ross County's figures include last season in the Scottish Championship, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Queen of the South 2.07 (48%), the draw 4.00 (25%), Ross County 3.75 (27%). The market's averages: 7.50, 5.50 and 1.23. The widest gap is on Queen of the South: the market offers 7.50 against our 2.07. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.97 (51%), under 2.5 2.03 (49%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.32, under 2.5 3.10. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 1.87 (53%), no 2.15 (47%). The market's averages: yes 1.67, no 2.06. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queen of the South's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (48%). In Ross County's own 23 away matches read, 9 (39%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 43% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.