Queen of the South scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; East Kilbride scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.
Queen of the South: 49 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season. East Kilbride: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League Two.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Queen of the South scores most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 71); Queen of the South concedes most in the 46-60 band (16 of 81); East Kilbride scores most in the 31-45+ band (24 of 98); East Kilbride concedes most in the 31-45+ band (12 of 62). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Queen of the South -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 49 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.5 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 71 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 71 (28%).
When it concedes
Of 81 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 15; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 14.
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 49 read -- then won 16, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 49 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
East Kilbride -- away
Goals a game
Scores 2.0 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 1.8 for and 1.3 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 98 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 16; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 24; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 17; 76-90+: 15.
When it concedes
Of 62 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 11.
The first goal
Scored first in 28 of its 48 read -- then won 21, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 5 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 19 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 25 of its 48 read, winning 23 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Built 10:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.