Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 60% of their games, both teams scoring in 59%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 58%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Queen of the South: 49 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season. East Kilbride: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League Two.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Queen of the South's numbers over its games, East Kilbride's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queen of the South's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (50%). In East Kilbride's own 23 away matches read, 15 (65%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 58% of games.
The two sides
Queen of the South -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 25 of its own 49 (51%); over 1.5 in 43 (88%); over 3.5 in 16 (33%). At home: over 2.5 in 13 of its 24 (54%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 28 of its own 49 (57%). At home: 15 of its 24 (62%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 49 (22%); failed to score in 11 (22%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Queen of the South's own 49 matches read: Queen of the South or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 27 (55%). Queen of the South itself held the lead in 12, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 24.
East Kilbride -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 33 of its own 48 (69%); over 1.5 in 44 (92%); over 3.5 in 22 (46%). Away: over 2.5 in 15 of its 23 (65%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 29 of its own 48 (60%). Away: 14 of its 23 (61%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 48 (25%); failed to score in 7 (15%).
Two goals clear
Counted over East Kilbride's own 48 matches read: East Kilbride or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 35 (73%). East Kilbride itself held the lead in 25, winning 23. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 15 of 23.
Built 10:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.