Dumbarton scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Elgin City scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. The shapes mesh: Dumbarton's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Elgin City is softest.
Dumbarton: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Elgin City: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Dumbarton scores most in the 61-75 band (12 of 49); Dumbarton concedes most in the 31-45+ band (18 of 70); Elgin City scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 68); Elgin City concedes most in the 61-75 band (14 of 60). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Dumbarton -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 41 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.3 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 49 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 9.
When it concedes
Of 70 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 12.
The first goal
Scored first in 15 of its 41 read -- then won 10, drew 4, lost 1; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 1 win and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 41 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Elgin City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 41 league matches; away, 1.6 for and 1.6 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 68 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 68 (22%).
When it concedes
Of 60 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 60 (23%).
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 41 read -- then won 11, drew 4, lost 4; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 3 wins and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 41 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 06:38 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.