Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 56% of their games, both teams scoring in 61%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 48%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Dumbarton: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Elgin City: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Dumbarton's numbers over its games, Elgin City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Dumbarton's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (50%). In Elgin City's own 20 away matches read, 9 (45%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 48% of games.
The two sides
Dumbarton -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 41 (54%); over 1.5 in 37 (90%); over 3.5 in 11 (27%). At home: over 2.5 in 13 of its 20 (65%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 26 of its own 41 (63%). At home: 13 of its 20 (65%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 5 of its own 41 (12%); failed to score in 11 (27%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Dumbarton's own 41 matches read: Dumbarton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (59%). Dumbarton itself held the lead in 8, winning 7. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 20.
Elgin City -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 41 (59%); over 1.5 in 36 (88%); over 3.5 in 13 (32%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 20 (65%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 24 of its own 41 (59%). Away: 14 of its 20 (70%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 41 (27%); failed to score in 7 (17%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Elgin City's own 41 matches read: Elgin City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (51%). Elgin City itself held the lead in 12, winning 11. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 20.
Built 06:38 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.