Scottish League Two, game week 6 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Kelty Hearts is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.00 points a game is the venue form gap, in Kelty Hearts's favour: Kelty Hearts takes 0.80 a game at home over the last two seasons, Annan Athletic 0.80 away. Kelty Hearts scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Annan Athletic scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Annan Athletic lands the first blow more often (18 of 41 to 12 of 41); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Annan Athletic's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 41; Annan Athletic finds its goals latest of all -- 19 of its 53 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Kelty Hearts 0.94 goals expected, Annan Athletic 1.19, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Kelty Hearts's figures include last season in the Scottish League One, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Kelty Hearts 3.44 (29%), the draw 3.41 (29%), Annan Athletic 2.40 (42%). The market's averages: 2.30, 3.90 and 2.90. The widest gap is on Kelty Hearts: the market is shorter (2.30) than our 3.44 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.78 (36%), under 2.5 1.56 (64%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.66, under 2.5 2.15. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.35 (43%), no 1.74 (57%). The market's averages: yes 1.60, no 2.30. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Kelty Hearts's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (55%). In Annan Athletic's own 20 away matches read, 10 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 06:38 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.