Scottish League Two, game week 11 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Elgin City the bigger side: 6th against 10th of 10 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Elgin City takes 1.93 points a game, Edinburgh City 1.15 -- the block form is Elgin City's. +0.26 points a game is the venue form gap, in Elgin City's favour: Elgin City takes 1.61 a game at home over the last two seasons, Edinburgh City 1.35 away. Elgin City scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Edinburgh City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 64% of their games, both teams scoring in 60%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (20 of 46 and 22 of 46); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Elgin City's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Edinburgh City's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 46; Elgin City finds its goals latest of all -- 20 of its 78 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Elgin City 1.96 goals expected, Edinburgh City 1.34, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Elgin City 1.93 (52%), the draw 4.56 (22%), Edinburgh City 3.82 (26%). The market's averages: 1.85, 3.50 and 3.20. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.50) than our 4.56 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.56 (64%), under 2.5 2.79 (36%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.55, under 2.5 2.35. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.58 (63%), no 2.74 (37%). The market's averages: yes 1.50, no 2.55. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Elgin City's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (61%). In Edinburgh City's own 23 away matches read, 10 (43%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.