Scottish League Two, game week 11 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Kelty Hearts is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -0.01 points a game is the venue form gap, in Forfar Athletic's favour: Kelty Hearts takes 0.86 a game at home over the last two seasons, Forfar Athletic 0.87 away. Kelty Hearts scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Forfar Athletic scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 49%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Forfar Athletic lands the first blow more often (24 of 46 to 15 of 46); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Kelty Hearts's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Forfar Athletic's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 46.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Kelty Hearts 1.09 goals expected, Forfar Athletic 1.42, from two seasons of scoring rates (22 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Kelty Hearts's figures include last season in the Scottish League One, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Kelty Hearts 3.46 (29%), the draw 3.78 (26%), Forfar Athletic 2.24 (45%). The market's averages: 2.00, 3.20 and 3.20. The widest gap is on Forfar Athletic: the market offers 3.20 against our 2.24. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.18 (46%), under 2.5 1.85 (54%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.76, under 2.5 2.00. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 1.99 (50%), no 2.01 (50%). The market's averages: yes 1.64, no 2.10. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Kelty Hearts's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (55%). In Forfar Athletic's own 23 away matches read, 10 (43%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 49% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.