Scottish Premiership, game week 6 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Dundee United and Falkirk finished near neighbours last season -- 7th and 6th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Dundee United takes 1.18 points a game, Falkirk 1.40 -- nothing between them. +0.18 points a game is the venue form gap, in Dundee United's favour: Dundee United takes 1.38 a game at home over the last two seasons, Falkirk 1.20 away. Dundee United scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Falkirk scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 49%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (17 of 43 and 16 of 42); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Dundee United's hands -- ahead without winning in 12 of 43.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Dundee United 1.22 goals expected, Falkirk 0.97, from two seasons of scoring rates (21 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Dundee United 2.38 (42%), the draw 3.46 (29%), Falkirk 3.44 (29%). The market's averages: 1.94, 3.58 and 3.50. The widest gap is on Dundee United: the market is shorter (1.94) than our 2.38 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.67 (37%), under 2.5 1.60 (63%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.71, under 2.5 2.16. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.29 (44%), no 1.78 (56%). The market's averages: yes 1.50, no 2.30. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Dundee United's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (38%). In Falkirk's own 20 away matches read, 12 (60%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 49% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.