Hearts v Dundee

The appraisal

The table makes Hearts the bigger side: 2nd against 8th of 12 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Hearts takes 2.69 points a game, Dundee 0.62 -- the block form is Hearts's. +1.95 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hearts's favour: Hearts takes 2.62 a game at home over the last two seasons, Dundee 0.67 away. Hearts scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Dundee scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Hearts's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Dundee is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 55% of their games, both teams scoring in 48%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record this leans a goals match.

How it may unfold

If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Hearts lands the first blow more often (28 of 42 to 15 of 43); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Hearts's -- two goals clear in 16 of 42, against 8 of 43; Hearts finds its goals latest of all -- 17 of its 77 after the 75th, and Dundee concedes most in that same spell; Dundee finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 48 after the 75th, and Hearts concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.

That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.

The tissue is a plain goals model: Hearts 1.98 goals expected, Dundee 0.44, from two seasons of scoring rates (21 home matches and 21 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.

Our numbers against the market’s

Match result

Our tissue: Hearts 1.35 (74%), the draw 5.38 (19%), Dundee 14 (7%). The market's averages: 1.55, 4.33 and 5.25. The widest gap is on Dundee: the market is shorter (5.25) than our 14 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.

Over or under 2.5 goals

Our tissue: over 2.5 2.30 (44%), under 2.5 1.77 (56%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.57, under 2.5 2.23. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.

Both teams to score

Our tissue: yes 3.24 (31%), no 1.45 (69%). The market's averages: yes 1.70, no 2.08. The market is shorter than our number on yes.

The 2UP fact

For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Hearts's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Dundee's own 21 away matches read, 8 (38%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.

The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.

Built 06:40 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.