Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 55% of their games, both teams scoring in 48%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Hearts: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Dundee: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Hearts's numbers over its games, Dundee's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Hearts's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Dundee's own 21 away matches read, 8 (38%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games.
The two sides
Hearts -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 42 (57%); over 1.5 in 31 (74%); over 3.5 in 13 (31%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 21 (52%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 21 of its own 42 (50%). At home: 9 of its 21 (43%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 18 of its own 42 (43%); failed to score in 4 (10%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Hearts's own 42 matches read: Hearts or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (48%). Hearts itself held the lead in 16, winning 16. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 21.
Dundee -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 43 (53%); over 1.5 in 31 (72%); over 3.5 in 13 (30%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 21 (43%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 20 of its own 43 (47%). Away: 6 of its 21 (29%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 43 (21%); failed to score in 16 (37%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Dundee's own 43 matches read: Dundee or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (47%). Dundee itself held the lead in 8, winning 6. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 21.
Built 06:40 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.