Scottish Premiership, game week 3 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Hibernian the bigger side: 5th against 10th of 12 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Hibernian takes 2.08 points a game, Kilmarnock 0.93 -- the block form is Hibernian's. +0.67 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hibernian's favour: Hibernian takes 1.43 a game at home over the last two seasons, Kilmarnock 0.76 away. Hibernian scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Kilmarnock scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Hibernian's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Kilmarnock is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 63% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Hibernian lands the first blow more often (22 of 43 to 15 of 43); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Hibernian's -- two goals clear in 15 of 43, against 11 of 43; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Kilmarnock's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 43; Hibernian finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 65 after the 75th, and Kilmarnock concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Hibernian 2.01 goals expected, Kilmarnock 1.15, from two seasons of scoring rates (21 home matches and 21 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Hibernian 1.75 (57%), the draw 4.68 (21%), Kilmarnock 4.69 (21%). The market's averages: 1.41, 4.50 and 5.75. The widest gap is on Kilmarnock: the market offers 5.75 against our 4.69. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.63 (61%), under 2.5 2.58 (39%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.45, under 2.5 2.41. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.69 (59%), no 2.45 (41%). The market's averages: yes 1.59, no 2.25. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Hibernian's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Kilmarnock's own 21 away matches read, 11 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 23:02 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.