Kilmarnock: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. Motherwell: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Kilmarnock scores most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 57); Kilmarnock concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 86); Motherwell scores most in the 16-30 band (17 of 68); Motherwell concedes most in the 61-75 band (11 of 49). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Kilmarnock -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.9 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.7 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 57 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 11.
When it concedes
Of 86 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 86 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 46 read -- then won 9, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 46 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Motherwell -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.3 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 68 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 17; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 16.
When it concedes
Of 49 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 49 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 26 of its 46 read -- then won 17, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 14 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 16 of its 46 read, winning 14 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.