St. Johnstone scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Dundee United scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 16-30. The shapes mesh: St. Johnstone's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Dundee United is softest.
St. Johnstone: 44 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Championship. Dundee United: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: St. Johnstone scores most in the 16-30 band (18 of 77); St. Johnstone concedes most in the 46-60 band (9 of 35); Dundee United scores most in the 61-75 band (14 of 59); Dundee United concedes most in the 16-30 band (16 of 71). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
St. Johnstone -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 0.8 a game over its last 44 league matches; at home, 2.0 for and 0.8 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 77 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 18; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 77 (23%).
When it concedes
Of 35 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 5.
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 44 read -- then won 21, drew 1, lost 1; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 4 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 21 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 44 read, winning 15 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Dundee United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 2.0 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 59 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 11.
When it concedes
Of 71 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14.
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 46 read -- then won 10, drew 9, lost 0; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 46 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 12.
Built 03:23 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.