Celtic: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. Hearts: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Celtic scores most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 89); Celtic concedes most in the 46-60 band (13 of 45); Hearts scores most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 86); Hearts concedes most in the 16-30 band (10 of 42). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Celtic -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.9 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 2.1 for and 0.7 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 89 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 15; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 89 (21%).
When it concedes
Of 45 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 4.
The first goal
Scored first in 29 of its 46 read -- then won 26, drew 1, lost 2; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 7 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 25 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 46 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 3.
Hearts -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.9 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 1.6 for and 1.3 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 86 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 86 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 42 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 9.
The first goal
Scored first in 29 of its 46 read -- then won 24, drew 2, lost 3; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 5 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 24 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 46 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 07:06 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.