Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 62% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Celtic: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. Hearts: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Celtic's numbers over its games, Hearts's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Celtic's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (61%). In Hearts's own 23 away matches read, 9 (39%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games.
The two sides
Celtic -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 30 of its own 46 (65%); over 1.5 in 36 (78%); over 3.5 in 17 (37%). At home: over 2.5 in 16 of its 23 (70%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 25 of its own 46 (54%). At home: 11 of its 23 (48%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 17 of its own 46 (37%); failed to score in 6 (13%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Celtic's own 46 matches read: Celtic or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (54%). Celtic itself held the lead in 17, winning 17. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 23.
Hearts -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 46 (59%); over 1.5 in 35 (76%); over 3.5 in 14 (30%). Away: over 2.5 in 14 of its 23 (61%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 24 of its own 46 (52%). Away: 14 of its 23 (61%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 19 of its own 46 (41%); failed to score in 4 (9%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Hearts's own 46 matches read: Hearts or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (46%). Hearts itself held the lead in 17, winning 17. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 23.
Built 07:06 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.