Aberdeen: 48 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Falkirk: 48 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Aberdeen scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 52); Aberdeen concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 68); Falkirk scores most in the 61-75 band (15 of 62); Falkirk concedes most in the 31-45+ band (19 of 74). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Aberdeen -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 48 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.1 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 52 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 52 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 68 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 68 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 48 read -- then won 12, drew 4, lost 1; conceded first in 28 -- pulled back 2 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 48 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Falkirk -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.4 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 62 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 6.
When it concedes
Of 74 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 19; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 16.
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 48 read -- then won 15, drew 3, lost 4; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 48 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Built 09:03 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.