Celtic: 48 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Dundee United: 48 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Celtic scores most in the 31-45+ band (21 of 98); Celtic concedes most in the 46-60 band (13 of 47); Dundee United scores most in the 61-75 band (15 of 63); Dundee United concedes most in the 16-30 band (18 of 74). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Celtic -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 2.0 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 48 league matches; at home, 2.3 for and 0.8 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 98 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 18; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 21; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 20.
When it concedes
Of 47 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 4.
The first goal
Scored first in 30 of its 48 read -- then won 27, drew 1, lost 2; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 8 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 28 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 18 of its 48 read, winning 18 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 3.
Dundee United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.9 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 63 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 12.
When it concedes
Of 74 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 18; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14.
The first goal
Scored first in 20 of its 48 read -- then won 11, drew 9, lost 0; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 3 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 18 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 48 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 12.
Built 09:03 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.