Scottish Premiership, game week 11 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Hearts and Rangers finished near neighbours last season -- 2nd and 3rd of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Hearts takes 1.79 points a game, Rangers 1.36 -- the block form is Hearts's. +0.78 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hearts's favour: Hearts takes 2.65 a game at home over the last two seasons, Rangers 1.88 away. Hearts scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Rangers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Hearts's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Rangers is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 58% of their games, both teams scoring in 57%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (30 of 48 and 31 of 48); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Rangers's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 48; Hearts finds its goals latest of all -- 22 of its 89 after the 75th, and Rangers concedes most in that same spell; Rangers finds its goals latest of all -- 24 of its 93 after the 75th; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Hearts 1.53 goals expected, Rangers 0.99, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Hearts 2.01 (50%), the draw 3.89 (26%), Rangers 4.07 (25%). The market's averages: 3.10, 3.70 and 2.03. The widest gap is on Hearts: the market offers 3.10 against our 2.01. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.16 (46%), under 2.5 1.86 (54%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.61, under 2.5 2.30. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.03 (49%), no 1.97 (51%). The market's averages: yes 1.57, no 2.30. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Hearts's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (52%). In Rangers's own 24 away matches read, 9 (38%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 09:03 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.