St. Johnstone: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Championship. Motherwell: 48 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: St. Johnstone scores most in the 16-30 band (19 of 78); St. Johnstone concedes most in the 46-60 band (9 of 40); Motherwell scores most in the 16-30 band (18 of 70); Motherwell concedes most in the 61-75 band (12 of 54). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
St. Johnstone -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.7 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 2.0 for and 0.8 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 78 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 19; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 18.
When it concedes
Of 40 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 7.
The first goal
Scored first in 24 of its 46 read -- then won 21, drew 2, lost 1; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 4 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 21 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 46 read, winning 15 of them; trailed by two in 5, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Motherwell -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 1.4 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 70 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 18; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 16.
When it concedes
Of 54 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 54 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 26 of its 48 read -- then won 17, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 16 of its 48 read, winning 14 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 12.
Built 09:03 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.