St. Mirren scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Hibernian scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Hibernian's strongest scoring spell is exactly where St. Mirren is softest.
St. Mirren: 48 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Hibernian: 48 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: St. Mirren scores most in the 76-90+ band (10 of 41); St. Mirren concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 73); Hibernian scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 68); Hibernian concedes most in the 31-45+ band (18 of 60). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
St. Mirren -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 0.9 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 48 league matches; at home, 0.8 for and 1.3 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 41 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 10. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 10 of 41 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 73 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 73 (26%).
The first goal
Scored first in 20 of its 48 read -- then won 11, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 1 win and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 7 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 48 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 17, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Hibernian -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.3 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 68 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 68 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 60 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 13.
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 48 read -- then won 17, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 0 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 48 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 09:03 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.