Dundee United v Hearts

The appraisal

The table makes Hearts the bigger side: 2nd against 7th of 12 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Dundee United takes 0.75 points a game, Hearts 2.56 -- the block form is Hearts's. -0.02 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hearts's favour: Dundee United takes 1.50 a game at home over the last two seasons, Hearts 1.52 away. Dundee United scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Hearts scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 16-30. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 55% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 39%. On the record this leans a goals match.

How it may unfold

If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Hearts lands the first blow more often (30 of 49 to 20 of 49); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Hearts's -- two goals clear in 18 of 49, against 10 of 49; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Dundee United's hands -- ahead without winning in 13 of 49; Hearts finds its goals latest of all -- 22 of its 91 after the 75th.

That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.

The tissue is a plain goals model: Dundee United 1.22 goals expected, Hearts 1.46, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.

Our numbers against the market’s

Match result

Our tissue: Dundee United 3.17 (32%), the draw 3.89 (26%), Hearts 2.34 (43%). The market's averages: 3.01, 3.55 and 2.16. All three outcomes sit close to our numbers -- no argument either way.

Over or under 2.5 goals

Our tissue: over 2.5 1.99 (50%), under 2.5 2.01 (50%). The market has not recorded both sides of this line yet.

Both teams to score

Our tissue: yes 1.85 (54%), no 2.18 (46%). The market has not recorded both sides of this line yet.

The 2UP fact

For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Dundee United's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (33%). In Hearts's own 25 away matches read, 11 (44%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 39% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.

The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.

This match has kicked off since these figures were built — everything above was read from before kick-off only.

Built 02:23 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.