St. Mirren scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Rangers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: St. Mirren's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Rangers is softest.
St. Mirren: 50 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season. Rangers: 49 league matches in the bank, 11 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: St. Mirren scores most in the 76-90+ band (11 of 42); St. Mirren concedes most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 75); Rangers scores most in the 76-90+ band (25 of 95); Rangers concedes most in the 76-90+ band (10 of 52). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
St. Mirren -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 0.8 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 0.8 for and 1.3 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 42 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 42 (26%).
When it concedes
Of 75 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 75 (28%).
The first goal
Scored first in 20 of its 50 read -- then won 11, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 50 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 17, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Rangers -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.9 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 49 league matches; away, 1.8 for and 1.1 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 95 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 16; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 17; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 25. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 25 of 95 (26%).
When it concedes
Of 52 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 10. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 10 of 52 (19%).
The first goal
Scored first in 32 of its 49 read -- then won 24, drew 6, lost 2; conceded first in 14 -- pulled back 3 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 49 read, winning 16 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 10:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.