Match result
Our tissue: Sheffield United Ladies 2.71 (37%), the draw 3.86 (26%), Durham Women 2.69 (37%). The market's averages: ?, ? and ?. Not every market price is recorded yet -- check nearer kick-off.
Sheffield United Ladies v Durham Women
Women's Championship, game week 4 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The appraisal
Sheffield United Ladies and Durham Women finished near neighbours last season -- 11th and 10th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Sheffield United Ladies takes 1.50 points a game, Durham Women 1.67 -- nothing between them. +0.42 points a game is the venue form gap, in Sheffield United Ladies's favour: Sheffield United Ladies takes 1.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, Durham Women 0.58 away. Sheffield United Ladies scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Durham Women scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 64% of their games, both teams scoring in 70%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 67%. On the record this leans a goals match.
How it may unfold
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (11 of 25 and 11 of 25); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Sheffield United Ladies's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 25; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Durham Women's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 25; Durham Women finds its goals latest of all -- 9 of its 31 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Sheffield United Ladies 1.34 goals expected, Durham Women 1.35, from two seasons of scoring rates (12 home matches and 12 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our numbers against the market’s
Over or under 2.5 goals
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.99 (50%), under 2.5 2.01 (50%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.74, under 2.5 1.97. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Both teams to score
Our tissue: yes 1.83 (55%), no 2.20 (45%). The market has not recorded both sides of this line yet.
The 2UP fact
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Sheffield United Ladies's own 12 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (50%). In Durham Women's own 12 away matches read, 10 (83%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 67% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.