Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 58% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 29%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Southampton W: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Nottingham Forest Ladies: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Southampton W's numbers over its games, Nottingham Forest Ladies's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Southampton W's own 12 home matches read, one appeared in 5 (42%). In Nottingham Forest Ladies's own 13 away matches read, 2 (15%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 29% of games.
The two sides
Southampton W -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 14 of its own 25 (56%); over 1.5 in 18 (72%); over 3.5 in 9 (36%). At home: over 2.5 in 7 of its 12 (58%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 13 of its own 25 (52%). At home: 7 of its 12 (58%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 25 (32%); failed to score in 7 (28%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Southampton W's own 25 matches read: Southampton W or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 12 (48%). Southampton W itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 5 of 12.
Nottingham Forest Ladies -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 15 of its own 25 (60%); over 1.5 in 20 (80%); over 3.5 in 6 (24%). Away: over 2.5 in 6 of its 13 (46%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 15 of its own 25 (60%). Away: 8 of its 13 (62%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 5 of its own 25 (20%); failed to score in 6 (24%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Nottingham Forest Ladies's own 25 matches read: Nottingham Forest Ladies or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 13 (52%). Nottingham Forest Ladies itself held the lead in 4, winning 4. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 2 of 13.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.