Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 70% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 59%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Manchester City Women: 22 league matches in the bank, all from last season. Birmingham City Women: 22 league matches in the bank, all from last season in the Women's Championship.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Manchester City Women's numbers over its games, Birmingham City Women's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Manchester City Women's own 11 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (64%). In Birmingham City Women's own 11 away matches read, 6 (55%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 59% of games.
The two sides
Manchester City Women -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 22 (77%); over 1.5 in 18 (82%); over 3.5 in 9 (41%). At home: over 2.5 in 8 of its 11 (73%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 13 of its own 22 (59%). At home: 6 of its 11 (55%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 22 (36%); failed to score in 2 (9%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Manchester City Women's own 22 matches read: Manchester City Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 13 (59%). Manchester City Women itself held the lead in 11, winning 11. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 11.
Birmingham City Women -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 14 of its own 22 (64%); over 1.5 in 18 (82%); over 3.5 in 7 (32%). Away: over 2.5 in 5 of its 11 (45%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 10 of its own 22 (45%). Away: 3 of its 11 (27%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 22 (36%); failed to score in 4 (18%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Birmingham City Women's own 22 matches read: Birmingham City Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 14 (64%). Birmingham City Women itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 11.
Built 06:10 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.