London City Lionesses v Brighton & Hove Albion Women
Women's Super League, game week 4 — UK time
Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come.
What this step says
London City Lionesses scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Brighton & Hove Albion Women scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: London City Lionesses's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Brighton & Hove Albion Women is softest.
London City Lionesses: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Brighton & Hove Albion Women: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: London City Lionesses scores most in the 76-90+ band (11 of 35); London City Lionesses concedes most in the 76-90+ band (9 of 39); Brighton & Hove Albion Women scores most in the 31-45+ band (7 of 30); Brighton & Hove Albion Women concedes most in the 76-90+ band (9 of 32). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
London City Lionesses -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 25 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.4 against over 12.
When it scores
Of 35 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 35 (31%).
When it concedes
Of 39 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 9 of 39 (23%).
The first goal
Scored first in 10 of its 25 read -- then won 7, drew 1, lost 2; conceded first in 14 -- pulled back 3 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 25 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 3.
Brighton & Hove Albion Women -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 25 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.2 against over 12.
When it scores
Of 30 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 7. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 7 of 30 (23%).
When it concedes
Of 32 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 9 of 32 (28%).
The first goal
Scored first in 14 of its 25 read -- then won 6, drew 3, lost 5; conceded first in 9 -- pulled back 1 win and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 5 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 4 of its 25 read, winning 3 of them; trailed by two in 3, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.