Birmingham City Women scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Crystal Palace Ladies scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Birmingham City Women's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Crystal Palace Ladies is softest.
Birmingham City Women: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season in the Women's Championship. Crystal Palace Ladies: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season in the Women's Championship.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Birmingham City Women scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 49); Birmingham City Women concedes most in the 1-15 band (7 of 31); Crystal Palace Ladies scores most in the 46-60 band (11 of 45); Crystal Palace Ladies concedes most in the 76-90+ band (12 of 33). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Birmingham City Women -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 2.0 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 25 league matches; at home, 2.4 for and 1.5 against over 12.
When it scores
Of 49 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 49 (31%).
When it concedes
Of 31 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 7. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 7 of 31 (23%).
The first goal
Scored first in 15 of its 25 read -- then won 13, drew 2, lost 0; conceded first in 10 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 4 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 25 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 2.
Crystal Palace Ladies -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 25 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.1 against over 12.
When it scores
Of 45 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 7.
When it concedes
Of 33 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 4; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 33 (36%).
The first goal
Scored first in 11 of its 25 read -- then won 10, drew 1, lost 0; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 25 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 3, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 2.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.