Chelsea Women scores heaviest in the 1-15 spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Arsenal Women scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.
Chelsea Women: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Arsenal Women: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Chelsea Women scores most in the 1-15 band (14 of 52); Chelsea Women concedes most in the 31-45+ band (6 of 21); Arsenal Women scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 55); Arsenal Women concedes most in the 76-90+ band (4 of 15). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Chelsea Women -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 2.1 and concedes 0.8 a game over its last 25 league matches; at home, 1.8 for and 0.7 against over 13.
When it scores
Of 52 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 4. Its heaviest scoring spell is the first 15 minutes -- 14 of 52 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 21 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 3.
The first goal
Scored first in 21 of its 25 read -- then won 16, drew 5, lost 0; conceded first in 4 -- pulled back 1 win and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 3 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 25 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 2, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Arsenal Women -- away
Goals a game
Scores 2.2 and concedes 0.6 a game over its last 25 league matches; away, 2.2 for and 0.7 against over 12.
When it scores
Of 55 scored across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 55 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 15 conceded across its own 25 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 2; 46-60: 0; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 4. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 4 of 15 (27%).
The first goal
Scored first in 15 of its 25 read -- then won 14, drew 1, lost 0; conceded first in 6 -- pulled back 2 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 25 read, winning 11 of them; was ahead at some point without winning in 1.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.