Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 44% of their games, both teams scoring in 48%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 56%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Chelsea Women: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Arsenal Women: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Chelsea Women's numbers over its games, Arsenal Women's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Chelsea Women's own 13 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (54%). In Arsenal Women's own 12 away matches read, 7 (58%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 56% of games.
The two sides
Chelsea Women -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 11 of its own 25 (44%); over 1.5 in 21 (84%); over 3.5 in 8 (32%). At home: over 2.5 in 4 of its 13 (31%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 12 of its own 25 (48%). At home: 4 of its 13 (31%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 25 (44%); failed to score in 2 (8%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Chelsea Women's own 25 matches read: Chelsea Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 15 (60%). Chelsea Women itself held the lead in 13, winning 13. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 13.
Arsenal Women -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 11 of its own 25 (44%); over 1.5 in 17 (68%); over 3.5 in 9 (36%). Away: over 2.5 in 6 of its 12 (50%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 12 of its own 25 (48%). Away: 6 of its 12 (50%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 25 (52%); failed to score in 4 (16%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Arsenal Women's own 25 matches read: Arsenal Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 11 (44%). Arsenal Women itself held the lead in 11, winning 11. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 12.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.