Women's Super League, game week 4 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Tottenham Hotspur Women the bigger side: 5th against 9th of 12 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Tottenham Hotspur Women takes 2.50 points a game, Aston Villa Ladies 0.67 -- the block form is Tottenham Hotspur Women's. +0.92 points a game is the venue form gap, in Tottenham Hotspur Women's favour: Tottenham Hotspur Women takes 1.92 a game at home over the last two seasons, Aston Villa Ladies 1.00 away. Tottenham Hotspur Women scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Aston Villa Ladies scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Tottenham Hotspur Women's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Aston Villa Ladies is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 62% of their games, both teams scoring in 64%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 32%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Tottenham Hotspur Women lands the first blow more often (11 of 25 to 7 of 25); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Tottenham Hotspur Women's -- two goals clear in 7 of 25, against 2 of 25; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Aston Villa Ladies's hands -- ahead without winning in 5 of 25; Tottenham Hotspur Women finds its goals latest of all -- 15 of its 46 after the 75th, and Aston Villa Ladies concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Tottenham Hotspur Women 1.46 goals expected, Aston Villa Ladies 1.09, from two seasons of scoring rates (12 home matches and 13 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Tottenham Hotspur Women 2.19 (46%), the draw 3.82 (26%), Aston Villa Ladies 3.54 (28%). The market's averages: 1.60, 3.90 and 4.82. The widest gap is on Aston Villa Ladies: the market offers 4.82 against our 3.54. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.13 (47%), under 2.5 1.88 (53%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.55, under 2.5 2.42. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 1.96 (51%), no 2.04 (49%). The market's averages: yes 1.53, no 2.30. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Tottenham Hotspur Women's own 12 home matches read, one appeared in 4 (33%). In Aston Villa Ladies's own 13 away matches read, 4 (31%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 32% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.