Women's Super League, game week 6 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Aston Villa Ladies and Liverpool Women finished near neighbours last season -- 9th and 11th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Aston Villa Ladies takes 1.67 points a game, Liverpool Women 1.17 -- the block form is Aston Villa Ladies's. +0.20 points a game is the venue form gap, in Aston Villa Ladies's favour: Aston Villa Ladies takes 0.77 a game at home over the last two seasons, Liverpool Women 0.57 away. Aston Villa Ladies scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Liverpool Women scores heaviest in 1-15 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 57%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (8 of 27 and 10 of 27); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Liverpool Women's -- two goals clear in 6 of 27, against 2 of 27; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Aston Villa Ladies's hands -- ahead without winning in 6 of 27; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Liverpool Women's hands -- ahead without winning in 5 of 27.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Aston Villa Ladies 1.42 goals expected, Liverpool Women 1.66, from two seasons of scoring rates (13 home matches and 14 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Aston Villa Ladies 3.03 (33%), the draw 4.21 (24%), Liverpool Women 2.32 (43%). The market's averages: 3.87, 3.62 and 1.75. The widest gap is on Aston Villa Ladies: the market offers 3.87 against our 3.03. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.68 (60%), under 2.5 2.47 (40%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.66, under 2.5 2.07. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.63 (61%), no 2.60 (39%). The market's averages: yes 1.58, no 2.20. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Aston Villa Ladies's own 13 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (62%). In Liverpool Women's own 14 away matches read, 6 (43%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 00:06 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.