Women's Super League, game week 6 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
London City Lionesses and Everton Women finished near neighbours last season -- 6th and 8th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: London City Lionesses takes 1.88 points a game, Everton Women 1.00 -- the block form is London City Lionesses's. +0.48 points a game is the venue form gap, in London City Lionesses's favour: London City Lionesses takes 1.69 a game at home over the last two seasons, Everton Women 1.21 away. London City Lionesses scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Everton Women scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 1-15. The shapes mesh: Everton Women's strongest scoring spell is exactly where London City Lionesses is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 59%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 37%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (12 of 27 and 11 of 27); Everton Women is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (9 of its 41 conceded before the 16th); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often London City Lionesses's -- two goals clear in 8 of 27, against 1 of 27; London City Lionesses finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 43 after the 75th; Everton Women finds its goals latest of all -- 9 of its 29 after the 75th, and London City Lionesses concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: London City Lionesses 1.35 goals expected, Everton Women 1.12, from two seasons of scoring rates (13 home matches and 14 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: London City Lionesses 2.37 (42%), the draw 3.71 (27%), Everton Women 3.24 (31%). The market's averages: 1.32, 4.65 and 7.55. The widest gap is on Everton Women: the market offers 7.55 against our 3.24. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.23 (45%), under 2.5 1.81 (55%). The market has not recorded both sides of this line yet.
Our tissue: yes 2.00 (50%), no 2.00 (50%). The market has not recorded both sides of this line yet.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In London City Lionesses's own 13 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (46%). In Everton Women's own 14 away matches read, 4 (29%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 37% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 00:06 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.