Chelsea Women scores heaviest in the 1-15 spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Manchester City Women scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.
Chelsea Women: 31 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester City Women: 31 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Chelsea Women scores most in the 1-15 band (17 of 72); Chelsea Women concedes most in the 31-45+ band (8 of 25); Manchester City Women scores most in the 61-75 band (19 of 89); Manchester City Women concedes most in the 31-45+ band (7 of 29). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Chelsea Women -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 2.3 and concedes 0.8 a game over its last 31 league matches; at home, 1.9 for and 0.8 against over 16.
When it scores
Of 72 scored across its own 31 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 17; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest scoring spell is the first 15 minutes -- 17 of 72 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 25 conceded across its own 31 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 4.
The first goal
Scored first in 26 of its 31 read -- then won 20, drew 6, lost 0; conceded first in 5 -- pulled back 2 wins and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 6 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 31 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 2, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Manchester City Women -- away
Goals a game
Scores 2.9 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 31 league matches; away, 2.1 for and 0.9 against over 15.
When it scores
Of 89 scored across its own 31 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 19; 76-90+: 18.
When it concedes
Of 29 conceded across its own 31 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 2; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 5.
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 31 read -- then won 23, drew 1, lost 1; conceded first in 5 -- pulled back 3 wins and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 31 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 2, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 2.
Built 13:34 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.