Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 63% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 48%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Chelsea Women: 31 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester City Women: 31 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Chelsea Women's numbers over its games, Manchester City Women's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Chelsea Women's own 16 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (50%). In Manchester City Women's own 15 away matches read, 7 (47%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 48% of games.
The two sides
Chelsea Women -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 15 of its own 31 (48%); over 1.5 in 26 (84%); over 3.5 in 11 (35%). At home: over 2.5 in 5 of its 16 (31%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 15 of its own 31 (48%). At home: 6 of its 16 (38%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 14 of its own 31 (45%); failed to score in 2 (6%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Chelsea Women's own 31 matches read: Chelsea Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (61%). Chelsea Women itself held the lead in 17, winning 17. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 16.
Manchester City Women -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 31 (77%); over 1.5 in 26 (84%); over 3.5 in 15 (48%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 15 (73%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 20 of its own 31 (65%). Away: 10 of its 15 (67%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 31 (32%); failed to score in 2 (6%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Manchester City Women's own 31 matches read: Manchester City Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (61%). Manchester City Women itself held the lead in 17, winning 17. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 15.
Built 13:34 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.