Lincoln City scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Southampton scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.
Lincoln City: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One. Southampton: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Lincoln City scores most in the 31-45+ band (22 of 92); Lincoln City concedes most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 46); Southampton scores most in the 46-60 band (19 of 91); Southampton concedes most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 60). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Lincoln City -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 2.2 for and 0.9 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 92 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 22; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 19.
When it concedes
Of 46 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 46 (28%).
The first goal
Scored first in 36 of its 50 read -- then won 30, drew 5, lost 1; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 21 of its 50 read, winning 19 of them; trailed by two in 5, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Southampton -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.8 for and 1.6 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 91 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 17; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 19; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 91 (21%).
When it concedes
Of 60 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 60 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 27 of its 50 read -- then won 18, drew 6, lost 3; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 6 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 23 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 16 of its 50 read, winning 16 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 06:38 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.