Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 59% of their games, both teams scoring in 61%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Lincoln City: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One. Southampton: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Lincoln City's numbers over its games, Southampton's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Lincoln City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (52%). In Southampton's own 25 away matches read, 12 (48%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games.
The two sides
Lincoln City -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 50 (54%); over 1.5 in 38 (76%); over 3.5 in 16 (32%). At home: over 2.5 in 16 of its 25 (64%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 25 of its own 50 (50%). At home: 15 of its 25 (60%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 21 of its own 50 (42%); failed to score in 6 (12%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Lincoln City's own 50 matches read: Lincoln City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 26 (52%). Lincoln City itself held the lead in 21, winning 19. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 25.
Southampton -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 32 of its own 50 (64%); over 1.5 in 43 (86%); over 3.5 in 18 (36%). Away: over 2.5 in 18 of its 25 (72%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 36 of its own 50 (72%). Away: 22 of its 25 (88%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 50 (24%); failed to score in 6 (12%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Southampton's own 50 matches read: Southampton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (48%). Southampton itself held the lead in 16, winning 16. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 25.
Built 06:38 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.