Portsmouth: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Cardiff City: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Portsmouth scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 54); Portsmouth concedes most in the 46-60 band (15 of 72); Cardiff City scores most in the 76-90+ band (23 of 96); Cardiff City concedes most in the 16-30 band (11 of 57). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Portsmouth -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.1 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 54 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 54 (26%).
When it concedes
Of 72 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 13.
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 7, lost 2; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Cardiff City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.9 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.7 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 96 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 19; 46-60: 21; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 23. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 23 of 96 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 57 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 9.
The first goal
Scored first in 28 of its 50 read -- then won 23, drew 5, lost 0; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 4 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 22 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 16 of its 50 read, winning 16 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.