Championship, game week 5 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
West Ham United is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -0.25 points a game is the venue form gap, in Derby County's favour: West Ham United takes 1.19 a game at home over the last two seasons, Derby County 1.44 away. West Ham United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Derby County scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 58% of their games, both teams scoring in 61%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 46%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Derby County lands the first blow more often (27 of 50 to 18 of 42); a one-goal lead has not been safe in West Ham United's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 42; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Derby County's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 50; West Ham United finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 54 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: West Ham United 1.47 goals expected, Derby County 1.90, from two seasons of scoring rates (21 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: West Ham United's figures include last season in the Premier League, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: West Ham United 3.34 (30%), the draw 4.49 (22%), Derby County 2.09 (48%). The market's averages: 1.40, 5.00 and 7.00. The widest gap is on Derby County: the market offers 7.00 against our 2.09. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.53 (65%), under 2.5 2.88 (35%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.66, under 2.5 2.18. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.53 (65%), no 2.89 (35%). The market's averages: yes 1.83, no 1.85. The market offers more than our number on yes -- if our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In West Ham United's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Derby County's own 25 away matches read, 10 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 46% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.