Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 58% of their games, both teams scoring in 61%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 46%. On the record this leans a goals match.
West Ham United: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the Premier League. Derby County: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- West Ham United's numbers over its games, Derby County's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In West Ham United's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Derby County's own 25 away matches read, 10 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 46% of games.
The two sides
West Ham United -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 42 (62%); over 1.5 in 37 (88%); over 3.5 in 13 (31%). At home: over 2.5 in 14 of its 21 (67%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 24 of its own 42 (57%). At home: 13 of its 21 (62%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 7 of its own 42 (17%); failed to score in 13 (31%).
Two goals clear
Counted over West Ham United's own 42 matches read: West Ham United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (60%). West Ham United itself held the lead in 11, winning 8. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 21.
Derby County -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 50 (54%); over 1.5 in 39 (78%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). Away: over 2.5 in 16 of its 25 (64%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 32 of its own 50 (64%). Away: 16 of its 25 (64%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 5 (10%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Derby County's own 50 matches read: Derby County or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (34%). Derby County itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 25.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.