Birmingham City scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Queens Park Rangers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60.
Birmingham City: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Queens Park Rangers: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Birmingham City scores most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 69); Birmingham City concedes most in the 31-45+ band (18 of 62); Queens Park Rangers scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 66); Queens Park Rangers concedes most in the 46-60 band (14 of 70). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Birmingham City -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.9 for and 1.1 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 69 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 10.
When it concedes
Of 62 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 7.
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 17, drew 5, lost 1; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 1 win and 10 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Queens Park Rangers -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 0.9 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 66 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 66 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 70 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 13.
The first goal
Scored first in 15 of its 50 read -- then won 11, drew 2, lost 2; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 6 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 22 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Built 03:23 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.