Derby County: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Stoke City: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Derby County scores most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 68); Derby County concedes most in the 61-75 band (15 of 66); Stoke City scores most in the 31-45+ band (13 of 59); Stoke City concedes most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 68). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Derby County -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.2 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 68 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 12.
When it concedes
Of 66 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 66 (23%).
The first goal
Scored first in 27 of its 50 read -- then won 18, drew 3, lost 6; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 2 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Stoke City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 0.8 for and 1.4 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 59 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 8.
When it concedes
Of 68 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 68 (31%).
The first goal
Scored first in 24 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 4, lost 5; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 1 win and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.