Portsmouth: 50 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season. Swansea City: 50 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Portsmouth scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 57); Portsmouth concedes most in the 46-60 band (14 of 70); Swansea City scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 67); Swansea City concedes most in the 31-45+ band (17 of 62). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Portsmouth -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.2 for and 1.1 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 57 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 57 (25%).
When it concedes
Of 70 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 13.
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 7, lost 2; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 50 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Swansea City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.6 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 67 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 67 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 62 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 12.
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 19, drew 2, lost 2; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 4 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 50 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Built 10:31 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.